Data Snacks: Vote from Home

LD3 comes in first countywide and statewide in several categories – 

• most registered voters in LDs statewide (now second), 

• best Dem turnout (still own that one), 

• highest AEVL (Active Early Voting List) participation…..oops.

LD3 no longer has the highest percentage of registered Democrats voting by mail among the Arizona Legislative Districts.  LD28 is higher.

As Democratic activists, we all know a voter is more likely to vote when their ballot comes in the mail and is easy to return.  Wouldn’t it be nice if we could quantify the increase?  The reality is, there are too many variables across the US.  Issues on the ballot, whether the state is considered a battleground, and demographics all play a role.

A couple of variables make a significant difference.  States that have automatic Voter Registration and all Vote-by-Mail, like Washington, Oregon, California, Montana and Vermont have the highest turnouts in the nation.  They are referred to as Vote at Home states.  One step below are states like Arizona which use no-excuses Vote by Mail plus Vote Centers instead of precinct voting.  

According to the NVAHI (National Vote at Home Institute) and data from Catalyst, voting by mail has a surprising positive impact on two groups:  voters of color and younger voters age 18-34.  The NVAHI when reporting on their research of the 2020 election called the evidence “powerful” and the results “dramatic”.

VOTING BY MAIL HAD A BIGGER IMPACT

ON TURNOUT OF YOUNG VOTERS

THAN BEING A BATTLEGROUND STATE.

In LD3, only about 4% of Democrats 65+ are not on AEVL.  For our Dems age 18-34 the number is 15%.   It’s time for us to bridge this gap.

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