Turnout by party is the measurement to use to compare “ants and elephants”, small districts vs large districts. Or to compare your own performance against your history.
But in the end, it’s the votes that matter.
Translating 2020 results with old district boundaries and old precincts is not for the timid, but it’s the one thing everyone wants to know. Here is the presidential vote for LD3 comparing 2020 to 2024 by census block. We can see there was a 5891 vote swing to the right. It was a 3.6% shift.
Five precincts shifted left a bit:
PINNACLE WEST
FOUNTAIN HILLS
WOLF RUN
SIERRA HILLS
WESTWORLD
One precinct, GOLDEN EAGLE in Fountain Hills, outperformed every other with a 3.2% shift left. In fact, four of our top seven precinct results were in Fountain Hills, and Sierra Hills precinct is right next door. (Yeah, Palisades didn’t make this list). Some of our precincts (not including the small ones) shifted right at more than 6%:
DEADMAN WASH
RANCHO PALOMA
DESERT HILLS
CANYON SPRINGS
DOVE VALLEY+SLEEPY RANCH+TRAMONTO
RHODES
SUTTON
CAVE CREEK (including old Spur Cross)
DC RANCH+LANE
NEW RIVER
RIO VERDE
MIRADA NEW + POWDERHORN RANCH
RIO VERDE precinct had the highest number of votes for Trump in Maricopa County – almost 500 more than the second highest, Pebble Creek.
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