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Data Snacks: Congressional Contests

There is a lot of buzz right now about Congressional District contests. It seems like everyone wants to run for Congress.

Congressional District 1, CD1, is one of the most hotly contested races in the country. In 2020, the Independent Redistricting Commission calculated CD1 as a 2.60-point spread – Highly Competitive. Yet in 2022, Jevin Hodge lost to Schweikert by 0.8-points. That’s how close we are. This race is winnable.

CD8, where LD3 has 12 precincts, has also stirred up interest this year. CD8 had a 15.3 point spread according to the IRC. That puts it in the non-competitive range, but….. There is a groundswell of interest this year in challenging Lesko. Without a challenger in 2022, Lesko raised a $1 million war chest she didn’t have to spend.

Congressional contests are expensive. Tipirneni spent $6.4 million in 2020 and lost. Elijah Norton spent $5.4 million on the primary and lost to Schweikert. Hodge spent about $2.6 million.

And remember, members of Congress need not live in the District they represent. It’s in the Constitution, Article I, Section 2.

We don’t have the majority of voters in either Congressional District. So how can LD3 make a difference? TURNOUT.

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