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Data Snacks: From Mid-Term to a Presidential Year

The difference in turnout between a mid-term election like the one we just had in 2022 and a presidential year election has averaged about 20% over the last two decades. For forecasting we would look at more recent trends. Those are much tighter. From 2020 to 2022, the midterm drop-off or roll-off in Arizona was 17.3%. We are all becoming better midterm voters.

Here is a simple chart showing the trend for Arizona. (It reminds me of my big sisters’ pinking shears.)

What does this mean for LD3? Our total turnout in the 2022 midterm was 79.01% with Dem turnout at 82%. Obviously, you don’t just add 20% to 79% and say we’ll be at 99% turnout next year. We have precincts who turnout in the 90th percentile even in midterms. They won’t produce a lot of additional votes in 2024. Canyon, Carefree, Granite Mountain, Terravita and Palisades are all very high turnout precincts.

Opportunities exist. Here are the precincts with less than 75% total turnout and less than 75% turnout by registered Democrats in 2022.

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