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Data Snacks: Heat Maps. It’s not just the weather that’s hot

Heat Maps can be produced for just about anything you can measure for a location. Yes, they are extensively used to show differences in temperatures. We can use them in political planning to show where to find groups of certain types of voters.

A choropleth shows intensity, by color or shade of color, of a measurement by physical boundaries. Here is a choropleth of LD3 from Maricopa County which shows by precinct the number of voters in each. And yes, Rio Verde is in our top three most populous precincts with Dixileta and Westworld topping the list.

A heat map generalizes location and ignores hard borders. Here are side-by-side heat maps for LD3 showing where Dems and GOP are most likely to find concentrations of supporters. Do you know which is which?

No surprise. Dems are on the Left.

The bright yellow spots on the map are similar between the two, but not identical. We have opportunities around Dove Valley, Sleepy Ranch and Tramonto. Rhodes and the Shea corridor. DC Ranch precinct and Westworld are big. Tatum Ranch glows yellow but shows more yellow for Republicans. The GOP opportunities swell around the exclusive enclaves of Troon, Desert Mountain, Estancia and Silverleaf.

As usual, the predictions will get better when we are closer to an election.

Click here to see a bigger version of the Dem heat map 2023 July Dem supporters heat map

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