Data Snacks: How we did in the last Presidential Election

2024 is our first Presidential year as LD3. 

In 2020 we lived in 3 different LDs and had precincts that were subsequently divided and recombined.  The statistics for those voters exist, however.  We can use it to approximate how our current precincts performed.

For those who have been on the excellent tour of the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center, you know that Arizona has a formal system of moving voters from Active status to Inactive status and eventually to disenrollment.  Currently, LD3 has fewer total voters than in the last few years.  That doesn’t mean the voters were kicked out.  It means they moved and didn’t tell officials.  Trimming the “deadwood” out of the lists makes them more efficient and drives our turnout numbers up.

Here is a comparison of the registered voters in LD3 from the 2020 General Election to today: 

Turnout for LD3 precincts in 2020 was first-in-class:

The top turnout for Democrats in 2020 was in Grayhawk and Stonegate, both at 96%.  Gavilan Peak, Deadman Wash, Hastings, Loma Verdes, Canyon, Rhodes, Mirada, Cactus Glen, Sutton and Tramonto had Dem turnout below 90%. Rhodes and Mirada are two of our blue precincts.

The most important measurement is results.

There was more than a 20% spread between Trump votes and Biden votes.  In the US Senate contest, Mark Kelly received identical votes to Joe Biden, 39%.  McSally did better than Trump at 61%.

There are too many variables yet to predict what this means for 2024.  We DO know there will be more authorized parties to splinter the vote.  The Green Party has been recertified and of course, there are No Labels and Libertarian.

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