Much has been written about the impact of third-party candidates on elections. The news this week from pundits claims that unaffiliated Senator Kyrsten Sinema would draw more votes away from Kari Lake than Ruben Gallego. No surprise.
No narrative today. Just a bunch of data.
Statewide Voter Registration grew 1.6% from 2022 election to 2023 election
Highest growth rate is LD29 at 4.9% (Surprise, the 303 and Luke AFB)
Republicans are down in LD8 (mostly ASU), and LDs 20, 18 and 17 (basically Pima County), but Democrats are down by a greater percentage – except in LD18 (it’s Tucson)
Democrats are down the most in LD30 (Wickenburg) and LD7 (home to Wendy Rogers’ trailer)
Statewide there are now 18,799 No Labels voters, primarily in LD8 and 22
The number of inactive voters is down by about 25% for both Ds and Rs in Maricopa County
Inactive voters are up everywhere else, notably in Pinal County
Rio Verde precinct continues to experience some of the highest growth in the county, 450 new voters including 225 Republicans and one Democrat. Who thought it could get redder?
The two precincts in the town of Cave Creek have lost 109 voters. 81 in Cave Creek precinct and 28 in the smaller Clay Mine. More snowbirds? More rentals?
Canyon Springs, west of I17, also lost voters.
GOOD NEWS. LD3 has 11 precincts where Dems are growing at least 1% faster than GOP.
A few precincts are a bit better than GOP
Then there is BRONCO precinct. A new hot spot.
No new development, no big apartments. Yet a surprising jump in Democrats. 3.5% better than Rs in one year.
Bronco is the very center of Democrats in LD3.
33.7097057,-111.9119055 (copy and enter in your favorite online map)
A few feet away from the new Miller Road bridge over Rawhide Wash (opening in late 2024)
25% of Bronco is State Land to be released for development, rumored to be after the new road is open
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